MEQB: Win vs Falcons can make Kellen Moore, loss won't break him
Updated: Oct 5
The Saints are 6-12 in the Dome across their last 18 games, and they're 0-2 vs the Falcons in the Kellen Moore Tyler Shough era.
On the most critical side of New Orleans I've heard this referred to a a must win game. It's week 4, it's a bit too early in the season to view any game as a defining moment of the season. Could it be an omen?
Sure, it's a celebration of the most iconic moment in time, the reopening of the Dome following the results of Hurricane Katrina. Capped off with the Steve Gleason blocked punt.
It's also a game where despite being 1-2 everything you want to accomplish as a team is right in front of you.
With a win you get back to .500 and a victory in a division that looks like it can be won with a losing record.
You can get New Orleans back into it, and the fans believing, but a loss here would hurt and make the record shift to 6-13 and be something of a kidney shot to a fan base that's been starving for a winning team since Drew Brees' retired.
Still, there's enough positives to point to that will buy Kellen Moore some rope with Saints fan.
They're scoring more points and they've improved in the redzone and the mirage of offensive success will buy him some time, even if they lose in the dome vs Falcons, unless the offense bombs horribly, there will be high potential for Shough to keep throwing his name into the hat for being one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.
That in itself will keep Saints fans engaged, even if sometimes perturbed with the results.
In some ways this final week will tell us how good or bad the Saints approach to training camp turned out.
Specifically their decision to lean heavily into joint practices reasons noted Arizona HC Matt Lafleur in somewhat candid response. "You get two joint practices in, that's the equivalent of playing the two preseason (games) because it is a heightened, amped-up environment," LaFleur told Arizona media. "You're not tackling, but it's the amped-up environment that you get.
"For some reason, the data says if you end up having those joint practices, you have a lower injury risk going into the first four weeks of the season." Effectively the Saints played six pre-season games before Week 1 and so far the math ain't mathin on what the data says.
The Saints are dealing with a plethora of injuries that are taking a toll and challenging the depth on this team earlier than expected, and the list doesn't include the injuries to two running backs in Devin Neal and Audric Estime, both of which are now on the practice squad of an upcoming opponent.
Depending on the results of this game you can point to training camp as a push or a failure but it'll be hard to call it a success if the ultimate goal was "getting good work" and keeping players healthy.
Second Year players have to step up this game
Tyler Shough, Jonas Sanker, Danny Stutsman, Quincy Riley, and Vernon Broughton are going to be a big reason why this team either wins or loses vs the Falcons.
On defense Sanker, Riley, and Stutsman are now a part of run fits that they didn't see much of last year. Riley wasn't in on base snaps last year, and the big run given up last week to Raiders rookie Mike Washington, Riley was an unblocked defended that made zero contact with Washington before his scamper.
Sanker is playing in the slot where Alontae Taylor was while Stutsman is playing the Mike LB position (should Pete Werner be out) previously occupied by Demario Davis.
They haven't seen nearly as much football as the guys they are replacing and that means that not only will the Saints have trouble stopping the run at a similar pace as last year, but their pass defense over the middle of the field could be exploited.
Vernon Broughton has been tasked with replacing Bryan Bresee who was lost for the season due to a knee injury. Broughton himself is still a player learning on the fly after missing last year with his own hip injury.
There's a lot of new on defense and it could get exposed.
Meanwhile Shough is coming off what was probably the worst performance of his career only because it directly resulted in a loss due to his three turnovers over the course of the 4th quarter.
While he's obviously taken the second year leap you expect from good quarterbacks, he hasn't fixed a nasty habit of holding the ball for long periods and taking sacks because of it.
Falcons have a defense that might not be getting a lot of sacks but they generate constant pressure and in some ways pressure makes Shough more skittish in the pocket than taking the actual hits does.
Collectively these five players will have the biggest impact on this game.
4th and 1
On the strength of Tyler Shough vs Michael Penix the Saints should win this. It's the Dome, it's a monumental occasion, the energy is behind them and they have the talent to compete.
They could also lose.
The glaring issue I see is that their offensive and defensive lines are depleted, underperforming or both, and the arrow is pointing up for the Falcons winning the war at the line of scrimmage. That could be what tilts this matchup in the Falcons favor, along with the extra rest and preparation time they received after playing on Thursday night the week prior. Otherwise the Saints can win through the air, and the Falcons run defense looks better than it is because their pass coverage offers more wins than zip.
Still I have the Saints losing to Falcons because they won't be able to take advantage of the energy in the Dome falling to 6-13 and continuing to be a team that's travels better than they play on their own turf.
Fans will let Moore know about it
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