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Where are the answers on this play if Devaughn Vele doesn't come open?


The motion and route from Chris Olave, combined with the shoulder fake from Shough, are designed to draw attention away from the middle and get Vele open for an easy throw. However, the Lions kept a linebacker underneath Vele's route, and the only other available option beyond that was Bryce Lance.



With Olave being used as a decoy, this was effectively a two-man route on a "gotta-have-it" play.,


Loading three receivers on one side of the formation cuts the field in half for the quarterback, so you better have good answers when the initial read doesn't come open and unfortunately the Saints had none.


Louis Riddick had the best take.




The Sack fumble that wasn't


I'm a Saints fan first, analyst second.


The reversal was the right call, and I'm not going to spend much time on this simply because leaving the game up to the refs is never a good thing. It should never come down to a missed call by a referee determining whether you won or lost a game.


So here goes...


Caleb Williams' hand was already detached from the ball before his wrist begins to move forward. The hit from the rusher dislodged the ball almost immediately.


Jared Goff's hand was still attached to the ball by the time his arm started its forward motion. The hit from Chase Young did not immediately dislodge the ball.


Just look at the grip and where each quarterback's hand was when the ball disconnected.


That's it. That's all.


Tell Nick Underhill to stop whining.





The Saints were never going to stop Jahmyr Gibbs


Gibbs finished with 29 carries for 156 yards and 2 TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry with a long of 21. For me, this was expected. If you've been reading our articles, listening to our podcast, or both, you're probably up to speed on our assessment of the Saints' run defense and how it would regress sans Demario Davis. If you haven't, don't worry I'll learn you something really quickly. The core of a defenses ability to stop the run relies on the triangle between the inside linebackers and the defensive tackles and the talent at those positions.


In a 4-3 that triangle is created by the two defensive tackles and the middle linebacker. In a 3-4 it's created by the nose tackle and the inside linebackers, as seen in the image below



Last year, the Saints had Demario Davis, Pete Werner, and Davon Godchaux in that triangle. One of those guys is an elite run defender; the other two, we'll say, were average.


That combined talent resulted in the Saints giving up only 4.0 yards per carry in 2025, ranking them fourth-best in the league.


In 2026, that triangle is Kaden Elliss, Pete Werner/Danny Stutsman, and Davon Godchaux. None of them would be considered elite run stoppers, and thus the overall ability of that group to stop the run was inherently going to regress.


And it did.


The Saints gave up 5.0 yards per carry to the Lions, which was 7th-worst among teams this week.


This defense isn't built to be as stingy against the run as it was last year, and this theme isn't going away unless the offense makes good on all of its offseason additions, provides some leads, and forces the opposing team to abandon the run.


That's the ONLY way they'll have a chance this year.


Complimentary football, with the offense doing the heavy lifting.


Next Sunday the Saints face the Baltimore Ravens and Derrick Henry, who just made history on Sunday.


Kellen Moore and his offense better figure out it's early game woes, and quickly, or next week will look the same.



PFF Grades Player Grades


Quick thoughts on these.


PFF isn't gospel, and they don't have all the answers, but I respect the work they put in.


Olave's 82.6 was easily the best grade on offense, and he deserves the game ball for the offense.


Vernon Broughton's 91.7 grade, if I'm not mistaken, was the highest among all defensive linemen graded so far.


Everyone on the offensive line outside of Kelvin Banks didn't grade well. At some point you have to start asking the question, it is the individual talent or is it the scheme and responsibilities.


Saints paid Travis Etienne 48 Million across 4 years for 9 carries in Week 1


Absolutely mind-boggling how poorly the Saints allocated their resources this offseason.


Signing Etienne wasn't the problem. Nor was paying him.


I wouldn't have done it, primarily because running backs are depreciating assets. They're leased by their drafting team for four or five years, piled with mileage, and then allowed to test free agency, where typically a needy team will overpay for a used vehicle.


Facts.


But the real reason they shouldn't have done it is because there were too many question marks surrounding the level of play they'd get from the offensive line.


The unit has underperformed for two to three years now despite the amount of talent and draft capital invested in it, and nothing determines a running back's success more than the offensive line and the scheme.


Neither was good last year.

So expecting David Edwards and Travis Etienne Jr. to suddenly catapult this run game to relevance was a miscalculation.


Add Kellen Moore's reluctance to establish a running game, and you have an expensive and underutilized asset in Week 1.


The Saints should have gone cheap at running back, drafted one, and waited to see if their offensive line would gel in Year 2 of Kellen Moore's regime.


Once you knew the offensive line was good, then you pay for a high-end runner if necessary.


Alvin Kamara was a victim of last year, not the reason the run game couldn't get going.



Tyler Shough's career game wasn't enough to overcome the gameplan


Tyler is that guy.


His only problem is he's having to overcome poor coaching decisions and game planning.


I get it. The Saints are a 3x1 or 11-personnel team, but for Christ's sake, having your second-year quarterback shoulder the entire load of the offense by throwing 56 passes is absurd.


And for those waiting to use the excuse that they were down 21 points so they had to be pass-heavy, I'm going to call bullshit before you get started.


Of Tyler Shough's 56 pass attempts, 44 came while the Saints were either tied or down seven. Only 12 came when the Saints were down 10 or more.


That means 79% of Shough's pass attempts came before the Saints were in a two-score game.


This wasn't a quarterback being forced to throw 56 times because his team spent the afternoon playing catch-up.


The Saints were asking him to carry the offense long before they needed him to.


The play-by-play makes that even more obvious.


The Saints were down just seven for the entire first half, yet they threw the ball 24 times and ran it 11 times—a 68/32 pass-run split. 


And even after Detroit went up 21-0, the Saints didn't suddenly abandon the run. On the possession immediately following the 21-0 score, the Saints ran the ball five times on nine plays, including multiple runs from shotgun, before scoring a touchdown.


So this isn't simply a case of, "Well, they were down three scores, what did you expect them to do?"


They were already putting an enormous amount of the offense on Shough's shoulders when the game was still within reach.


And that's where my problem with the game plan starts.


Shough finished with 35 completions on 56 attempts for 410 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while taking five sacks for 32 yards.


That's a hell of a game from a second-year quarterback.


He made mistakes. He looked rattled early. He took too many sacks. But he also threw for 410 yards and three touchdowns and brought the Saints all the way back from a 21-0 deficit.


He proved he could carry the offense.


That doesn't mean you should ask him to carry it.


There's a difference.


I'm sure there's a direct correlation between the number of sacks Tyler Shough took and the amount of pressure the offensive line gave up, but here's the part nobody seems to want to acknowledge:


You can help your quarterback and your offensive line by running the damn football.


A running game doesn't just produce rushing yards. It changes the pass rush. It changes the defensive front. It forces linebackers to hesitate. It creates play-action opportunities. It slows down the defense's ability to tee off on a young quarterback.


And the Saints had Travis Etienne Jr.


They gave him nine carries.


That's the part I can't get past.


You don't pay a running back $48 million, then ask your second-year quarterback to throw 56 times while your expensive running back spent more time running routes (27) and pass blocking (15) than he did running (10)


Run the damn ball.


Shough will take fewer hits, the offensive line will face fewer obvious passing situations, and your quarterback won't have to be perfect for 60 minutes.


Simple.


Random Thoughts


  • Barion Brown seems to be further along as a receiver than a returner.


  • I was suprised to see Kaden Ellis not used as a pressure player as much, he could have a big impact in that regard as the season progresses.


  • Last year the Saints defense played with light boxes at the 10th highest clip 44.1%. Against the Lions they only presented a light box on 30.3%. This likely had more to do with the Lions playing in more heavy personnel than a change to how they operate.


  • Joey Porter Jr. is potentially on the market, and a lot of people feel the Saints should be interested. Moves for players like that are done by winning teams, Saints need to be in that number before they consider the cost.


  • Chris Olave had a huge game and he looks good in that guardian cap, but man I cringe every time he lands on the ground awkwardly, and if the Saints are going to pass the ball that much, there will be more opportunities for him to do that through the season.






Ryan Heath's How To Be An Elite Playcaller study ranked 42 offensive play-callers from 2021-25 based on how frequently they utilized six efficiency-based concepts.


Kellen Moore finished 27th out of 42.


His scores out of 100:

  • 55 — Pass on Early Downs

  • 45 — Play Action

  • 33 — Box Advantage

  • 52 — Downfield

  • 33 — Under Center

  • 76 — Fourth Down


That paints a pretty interesting picture.


Moore isn't particularly bad at everything.


He's reasonably aggressive passing on early downs. He's okay attacking downfield. And his fourth-down score is the strongest parts of his profile.


But the three areas where he really struggles are the areas that could fundamentally change how difficult his offense is to defend:


Play action.

Box advantage.

Under center.


Statistically last year's data coincides with his deficiencies.


  • The Saints ran Play-Action on 18.4% of snaps 2nd fewest in the league

  • The Saints were in Shotgun on 74% of snaps

  • The Saints were in 11 personnel 69% of the time but only dabbled in 12, 21, or 13 personnel 19%, 7%, 0.2% respectively



Want to know how using more play action, heavier personnel packages, and moving under center all connect?


They collectively pose the threat of run


Improving in those areas is a cheat code for Kellen Moore. If he reduces the amount of time he's in 11 personnel, gets under center more, and runs more play action, defenses would have to respect the threat of run.


The box advantage score is where Kellen Moore has the biggest opportunity to update his offense.


12, 13, 21, and 22 personnel are all "heavy" packages that should force base defenses.


Those packages scream "were likely running the ball here" even if you don't. Sure a defense could decide to stay in nickel but then you can punish them for keeping an extra defensive back on the field.


The mind game offenses must play to get box advantage are simple, Show run, pass the ball OR show pass and run the ball.


Last year Kellen Moore's offense showed pass and then passed 70% of the time out of 11 personnel - they were predictable.


And that's a problem because of the way NFL defenses are evolving.


Passing yards per game hit their lowest point since 2008 last season, with teams averaging just 209.7 yards per game, down from 243.8 a decade ago.


Defenses are becoming more exotic.


Fangio-style defenses in particular are willing to sacrifice some ability to stop the run in exchange for being structurally sound in coverage. The philosophy is essentially: You aren't beating us deep, and eventually you're going to get impatient and try to force the pass, right into the teeth of our defense.


So what's the answer?


Kellen Moore has to be willing to diversify his personnel packages and run the ball, or at least threaten to run it.


The Preseason Says There Was change but is it enough?


Preseason is a time to practice and install new concepts and to Moore's credit, there were some tweaks to his scheme.


The Saints were in shotgun on 109 of 172 plays in the preseason (63%), compared with 74.75% the year before.


That's roughly a 11% decrease in shotgun usage, an improvement if it holds.


Same with play-action.


Of 99 passing plays, 25 came with play action and 74 did not. Roughly a 25% play-action rate. That's a 7% increase in play-action usage. That rate would have ranked them 13th in the NFL last season, a significant jump from the 2nd worst 18.4% rate.


Again, improvement.


But a leopard can't change it's spots.


The Saints still ran the majority of their offense from shotgun. And through the portion of my preseason personnel count I completed before NFL Pro crashed my browser, they'd run 69 of 81 plays from 11 personnel through two games, that's — 85%.


The under-center numbers add to the story.


Of 63 under-center plays, 44 were runs and only 19 were passes. Meanwhile, 80 of 109 shotgun plays were passes.


The offense is still showing pass and passing with the added bonus of showing run and running.


If under center increasingly means run and shotgun still means pass, you've changed the formations without necessarily changing the information you're giving the defense.


And that's a huge part of what Moore needs to fix.


Yes, it's ONLY preseason and Moore didn't call the first two pre-season games but who you are in "practice" typically translates to who you are in games.


So here's the question heading into 2026:


Did the Saints improve enough as a roster, and can Kellen Moore evolve enough as a play-caller to take advantage of it?


The answer to the first question is yes.


The jury is out on the second.



Kellen Moore/Offense receive boost but Staley lost talent.


The biggest improvement on this roster is on the offensive side of the ball.


The Saints have more talent and or depth at virtually every offensive position group.


The offensive line replaced Trevor Penning with David Edwards at left guard and Toricelli Simpkins with Jeremiah Wright at right guard for a talent boost, but the losses of Dillon Radunz to IR and Luke Fortner to free agency reduce the depth. If Taliese Fuaga and Kelvin Banks improve, Cesar Ruiz plays up to his contract and Erik McCoy stays healthy, this group has a legitimate chance to be one of the better offensive lines in the league.


The biggest improvement may be a tie between receiver and running back.


A healthy Kendre Miller alongside Travis Étienne gives New Orleans a legitimate 1-2 punch and, more importantly, gives Alvin Kamara a chance to become more involved in the passing game. The Saints have the versatility to use 21 or 22 personnel without having to make Kamara the centerpiece of every rushing package. Zamir White and C.J. Donaldson also give the team some depth behind them.


The wide receiver group has potential to develop around the loss of Jordan Tyson, which takes some of the weight off his eventual return.


Bryce Lance can carve out a role as a sacrificial X and deep-ball specialist with some untapped YAC ability underneath, while Barion Brown adds some jet-sweep juice as a quality 4th receiver with some gadget ability. 


Chris Olave will be the playmaker and Devaughn Vele will serve as safety valve and for Tyler Shough


Depending on how slowly they want to bring Tyson along, these guys could have established roles by the time he returns to a regular workload allowing the Saints to gradually reintroduce Tyson back into the offense.


The talent and depth added to the tight-end room gives Moore the ability to run more 12 or 13 personnel if he chooses.


Noah Fant and Oscar Delp provide additional flexibility along side Juwan Johnson, and Fant could end up being one of the more important additions because the Saints keeping only four receivers should signals more reliance on the veterans at tight-end early on.


Instead of living in 11 personnel and shotgun, the Saints now have enough running back and tight end talent to create legitimate personnel variation.


The defense is a slightly different story.


The Saints have regressed in talent and depth at defensive back after losing Alontae Taylor to free agency. The saving grace is a healthy and deep safety room. Julian Blackmon is the force multiplier, and if he and Justin Reid, who could help protect the young corners by making sure nothing gets over the top. That allows Jonas Sanker, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley to operate underneath.


McKinstry is probably the biggest wild card.


He remains the de facto No. 1 corner and was trusted without safety help frequently in 2025, but he was also responsible for eight touchdowns. If he reaches his third-year potential, the secondary gets some much-needed bite.


Bryan Bresee landing on IR was as costly as it was unexpected.


Losing him is a significant blow to the interior pass rush, but it should accelerate the development of Christen Miller and Vernon Broughton, with the former seeing a larger roles in the rotation than initially expected and the latter taking over as the starter.


The linebacker room is perhaps the most interesting defensive group.


The Saints lost Demario Davis' pure run-stopping ability but added Kaden Elliss, who fits Brandon Staley's scheme and could help generate more pressure as an interior blitzer. Pete Werner gets the start based on seniority but Danny Stutsman is the better schematic fit and will be a rotational norm in sub packages.


So the roster equation is fairly simple:


The offense got deeper. The defense got thinner.



So What Does This Mean for the Saints?


The roster is better.


The offense has more depth.


The running back room is significantly more versatile.


The tight end room gives Moore more flexibility.


The offensive line has a chance to be better if it stays healthy.


And Tyler Shough gives the Saints a quarterback they believe can be the answer.


There is also something tangible to build on with Shough. Once he took over, the red-zone offense improved from a 34.5% conversion rate to a 75% conversion rate across multiple games. He posted a 133.4 red-zone passer rating with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, plus another rushing touchdown.


But the defense is almost certain to regress and won't be able to carry this team in the way they did down the stretch last year.


Staley's defense is still fundamentally built to bend without breaking, but last year it was more suffocating especially on 3rd down. That could get harder if they regress stopping the run on early downs without Demario Davis.


That puts the burden back where it belongs.


On Kellen Moore


The Saints didn't hire an offensive minded coach in Moore with the expectation that they'd only score 18 points per game last year.


And this is where Moore has fewer excuses than he did a year ago.



Prediction: 9 Wins Is Possible. But 7-8 Is Where I'm Landing.


I think this is a better football team than the one that went 6-11, but I'm not ready to call it a nine- or ten-win team simply because the roster improved.


I'm landing at 7-8 wins, with 9-10 as the ceiling if the offensive changes materialize, the defense holds together, and they stay relatively healty.


The Saints gave Kellen Moore more tools.


Now he has to prove he knows how to use them. 



Lagniappe:


  • Saints added Jonah Williams to the practice squad. He was on the Saints last year but was lost in free agency. This is a good bonus to the interior depth


  • Saints will vote on team captains today


Tyler Shough was one of 12 quarterbacks who didn't get any preseason snaps, and while Kellen Moore has cited the “work” Shough got in joint practices as the reason for that, I'm going to present you with some hard-to-ignore facts about why this could come back to bite them.


Shough was sacked 31 times in just 11 games last season — a pace of nearly 48 sacks over a full season, which would've ranked fourth worst in the NFL.


But there's a curveball to be added


Shough was only pressured on 31.8% of his drop backs, the 11th-lowest pressure rate among quarterbacks.


The term "Sacks are a QB stat" has merit but it's typically a three part problem maybe four. QB - Does the QB navigate the pocket well, avoid pressure, and get rid of ball on time.


Scheme - How's the design and does it provide answers for the quarterbacks


Oline - Can they hold their blocks


If we can presume the offensive line was doing its job relatively well, why was Shough taking so many sacks?


Is it the QB, the scheme or both?


Ideally both the QB and the scheme around him have improved, but it's hard to know because Kellen Moore chose to keep his starting quarterback out of preseason games and rely heavily on joint practices, where quarterbacks wear non-contact jerseys and don't experience the same consequences of a live NFL pass rush.


I'd like to think that leaves a huge chunk of data missing


Can the Saints get a complete picture of whether Shough has improved his pocket awareness and sack avoidance without putting him in the exact environment that exposed the problem?


 

Saints running game must improve in two key area for success


The Saints ran for 169 yards on 32 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, with three touchdowns and a long of 33 yards. That included two carries from Barion Brown that went for 19 yards.


This is the type of output you love to see, especially on the heels of Kendre Miller revealing that the Saints were going to lean back into the wide-zone scheme the Saints ran when he was first drafted. Still, I want to provide some context for that performance


Dallas' defensive scheme is a branch of the Fangio tree. Like Brandon Staley, Christian Parker believes in defending the run with light boxes.


23 of 32 (72%) were defended from a light box (<7 Defenders)


7 of the 32(22%) were defended from a neutral box (7 defenders)


Only 2 of the 32 (6%) were from a heavy box (8+ Defender) and the scenarios were goal line and a 4th and 1.


The Saints had success running the ball in part because Dallas was willing to concede the run schematically to defend the pass, and the Cowboys' five-and six-man boxes weren't exactly filled with elite run defenders.


Still, it’s inevitable that the Saints will improve running the ball this year. 


They have better talent on the offensive line (health will be important), a better running back group (health will be important) and a better scheme that properly fits the personnel.


Where the Saints need to see their biggest improvement is how successful they are running the ball in must have moments.


Last year the Saints ranked 30th and converted only 44.4% of their goal to go situations, nearly 30% below league average (74.4%).  When needing one yard or less on 3rd or 4th down, New Orleans converted just 29 of 49 attempts (59.2%)


Can the Saints impose their will on the ground when it needs to most?



Technically the Saints played how many pre-season games?


I stumbled across a quote that I thought was revealing. “If you get two joint practices in, that’s the equivalent of getting two preseason (games) in,” Arizona Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur said. “It is an amped up environment. … For some reason, the data says that if you end up having those joint practices, you have a less injury risk going into the first four weeks of the season.”


The injury risk thing is up in the air because we won't know how legit that study is until the end of September.


But what we do know is that last Wednesday the Saints had the second-most injuries in camp and when you use Mike Lafleur's comments in context it makes sense.


By the time the Saints had 20 players show up on the injury report following the Rams game they'd played in what amounted to five pre-season games in nine days.


Aug 13: Joint - Jaguars

Aug 15: Game - Jaguars

Aug 18: Joint - Cowboys

Aug 20: Joint - Rams

Aug 22: Game - Rams


Once you include the Dallas exhibition the Saints effectively played in whopping six pre-season games.

We'll see the product of that both good and bad across the coming weeks

 

 





PFF Grades

Top 5 Offense

  1. Ronnie Bell, WR — 91.7

  2. Easton Kilty, LG — 91.0

  3. Jeremiah Wright, RG — 82.6

  4. Alex Wollschlaeger, RT — 78.0

  5. Will Sherman, C — 77.0


Bottom 3 Offense

  1. Kevin Austin Jr., WR — 55.3

  2. Jalen Moreno-Cropper, WR — 53.7

  3. Xavier Truss, RG — 47.9


Top 5 Defense

  1. Terrell Burgess, S — 90.6

  2. Jordan Howden, S — 74.6

  3. Garrett Nelson, Edge — 73.2

  4. Jay'Viar Suggs, DL — 71.6

  5. Tyree Wilson, Edge — 71.4


Bottom 3 Defense

  1. Fadil Diggs, Edge — 48.2

  2. Michael Heldman, Edge — 45.2

  3. Brien Taylor Jr., DL — 42.5

 

-Easton Kilty graded in the green in every game and made it back to the Saints practice squad for continued development.


-Jeremiah Wright having his first positive grade suggests he's trending in the right direction and at the very least is the prototype right guard for Moore’s offense.


-Tyree Wilson makes an appearance in his first game and, while not flashy, seeing a positive contribution is a good sign.

 

Stock Down

 

Coming out of this pre-season game, the secondary is in a tough spot.  There’s an old saying that you can never have enough corners, and right now the Saints don’t have enough.


They can't afford another injury at defensive back, and I'd be surprised if New Orleans doesn't make an additional move before the season even with Quincy Riley back at practice.


Isaac Yiadom being cut suggest the Saints either feel they can improve #4 position or the Saints expect to use more three safety/DB packages than three true corner packages.


Per Kellen Moore, Jayden Price looks to be in line for more outside corner work and the addition of Decamerion Richardson adds some developmental talent/depth, though him seeing signficant snaps at any point this season would be worse case scenario for Saints.



4th Down and 1


One must give credit where credit is due.


The Saints obviously "responded the right way" (see what I did there?) to last weeks challenge and showed up to Dallas resembling the team we saw against the Jaguars in Week 1.

That's a clear testament to Kellen Moore, who's level headed approach seems to keep his team from getting too high or too low following games.


Last year I mostly credited the locker room dynamics for the Saints weathering two four game losing streaks and wondered if the loss of Demario Davis combined with shrinking roles for guys like Alvin Kamara and Cameron Jordan, would lead to the locker room leadership taking a hit, and perhaps impacting the teams responses to difficult situations.

This team's reaction to last week gives us a new data point.


Maybe Kellen Moore's leadership has been the glue all along.


They didn't just play better against Dallas.


They had a proper retort to a rough week.


And ultimately, that's what this team is going to live and die by under Kellen Moore: his decision-making and his ability to keep the team steady when things inevitably go wrong.




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