MEQB: Saints Kellen Moore may regret not playing Tyler Shough
Updated: Sep 7
Tyler Shough was one of 12 quarterbacks who didn't get any preseason snaps, and while Kellen Moore has cited the “work” Shough got in joint practices as the reason for that, I'm going to present you with some hard-to-ignore facts about why this could come back to bite them.
Shough was sacked 31 times in just 11 games last season — a pace of nearly 48 sacks over a full season, which would've ranked fourth worst in the NFL.
But there's a curveball to be added
Shough was only pressured on 31.8% of his drop backs, the 11th-lowest pressure rate among quarterbacks.
The term "Sacks are a QB stat" has merit but it's typically a three part problem maybe four. QB - Does the QB navigate the pocket well, avoid pressure, and get rid of ball on time.
Scheme - How's the design and does it provide answers for the quarterbacks
Oline - Can they hold their blocks
If we can presume the offensive line was doing its job relatively well, why was Shough taking so many sacks?
Is it the QB, the scheme or both?
Ideally both the QB and the scheme around him have improved, but it's hard to know because Kellen Moore chose to keep his starting quarterback out of preseason games and rely heavily on joint practices, where quarterbacks wear non-contact jerseys and don't experience the same consequences of a live NFL pass rush.
I'd like to think that leaves a huge chunk of data missing
Can the Saints get a complete picture of whether Shough has improved his pocket awareness and sack avoidance without putting him in the exact environment that exposed the problem?
Saints running game must improve in two key area for success
The Saints ran for 169 yards on 32 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, with three touchdowns and a long of 33 yards. That included two carries from Barion Brown that went for 19 yards.
This is the type of output you love to see, especially on the heels of Kendre Miller revealing that the Saints were going to lean back into the wide-zone scheme the Saints ran when he was first drafted. Still, I want to provide some context for that performance
Dallas' defensive scheme is a branch of the Fangio tree. Like Brandon Staley, Christian Parker believes in defending the run with light boxes.
23 of 32 (72%) were defended from a light box (<7 Defenders)
7 of the 32(22%) were defended from a neutral box (7 defenders)
Only 2 of the 32 (6%) were from a heavy box (8+ Defender) and the scenarios were goal line and a 4th and 1.
The Saints had success running the ball in part because Dallas was willing to concede the run schematically to defend the pass, and the Cowboys' five-and six-man boxes weren't exactly filled with elite run defenders.
Still, it’s inevitable that the Saints will improve running the ball this year.
They have better talent on the offensive line (health will be important), a better running back group (health will be important) and a better scheme that properly fits the personnel.
Where the Saints need to see their biggest improvement is how successful they are running the ball in must have moments.
Last year the Saints ranked 30th and converted only 44.4% of their goal to go situations, nearly 30% below league average (74.4%). When needing one yard or less on 3rd or 4th down, New Orleans converted just 29 of 49 attempts (59.2%)
Can the Saints impose their will on the ground when it needs to most?
Technically the Saints played how many pre-season games?
I stumbled across a quote that I thought was revealing. “If you get two joint practices in, that’s the equivalent of getting two preseason (games) in,” Arizona Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur said. “It is an amped up environment. … For some reason, the data says that if you end up having those joint practices, you have a less injury risk going into the first four weeks of the season.”
The injury risk thing is up in the air because we won't know how legit that study is until the end of September.
But what we do know is that last Wednesday the Saints had the second-most injuries in camp and when you use Mike Lafleur's comments in context it makes sense.
By the time the Saints had 20 players show up on the injury report following the Rams game they'd played in what amounted to five pre-season games in nine days.
Aug 13: Joint - Jaguars
Aug 15: Game - Jaguars
Aug 18: Joint - Cowboys
Aug 20: Joint - Rams
Aug 22: Game - Rams
Once you include the Dallas exhibition the Saints effectively played in whopping six pre-season games.
We'll see the product of that both good and bad across the coming weeks
PFF Grades
Top 5 Offense
Ronnie Bell, WR — 91.7
Easton Kilty, LG — 91.0
Jeremiah Wright, RG — 82.6
Alex Wollschlaeger, RT — 78.0
Will Sherman, C — 77.0
Bottom 3 Offense
Kevin Austin Jr., WR — 55.3
Jalen Moreno-Cropper, WR — 53.7
Xavier Truss, RG — 47.9
Top 5 Defense
Terrell Burgess, S — 90.6
Jordan Howden, S — 74.6
Garrett Nelson, Edge — 73.2
Jay'Viar Suggs, DL — 71.6
Tyree Wilson, Edge — 71.4
Bottom 3 Defense
Fadil Diggs, Edge — 48.2
Michael Heldman, Edge — 45.2
Brien Taylor Jr., DL — 42.5
-Easton Kilty graded in the green in every game and made it back to the Saints practice squad for continued development.
-Jeremiah Wright having his first positive grade suggests he's trending in the right direction and at the very least is the prototype right guard for Moore’s offense.
-Tyree Wilson makes an appearance in his first game and, while not flashy, seeing a positive contribution is a good sign.
Stock Down
Coming out of this pre-season game, the secondary is in a tough spot. There’s an old saying that you can never have enough corners, and right now the Saints don’t have enough.
They can't afford another injury at defensive back, and I'd be surprised if New Orleans doesn't make an additional move before the season even with Quincy Riley back at practice.
Isaac Yiadom being cut suggest the Saints either feel they can improve #4 position or the Saints expect to use more three safety/DB packages than three true corner packages.
Per Kellen Moore, Jayden Price looks to be in line for more outside corner work and the addition of Decamerion Richardson adds some developmental talent/depth, though him seeing signficant snaps at any point this season would be worse case scenario for Saints.
4th Down and 1
One must give credit where credit is due.
The Saints obviously "responded the right way" (see what I did there?) to last weeks challenge and showed up to Dallas resembling the team we saw against the Jaguars in Week 1.
That's a clear testament to Kellen Moore, who's level headed approach seems to keep his team from getting too high or too low following games.
Last year I mostly credited the locker room dynamics for the Saints weathering two four game losing streaks and wondered if the loss of Demario Davis combined with shrinking roles for guys like Alvin Kamara and Cameron Jordan, would lead to the locker room leadership taking a hit, and perhaps impacting the teams responses to difficult situations.
This team's reaction to last week gives us a new data point.
Maybe Kellen Moore's leadership has been the glue all along.
They didn't just play better against Dallas.
They had a proper retort to a rough week.
And ultimately, that's what this team is going to live and die by under Kellen Moore: his decision-making and his ability to keep the team steady when things inevitably go wrong.
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