When you view how things played out, the picture becomes clear.
The Saints coaching staff wanted to see Shough win the job, not pull even…but WIN it, and he didn’t do that decisively. The common consensus among fans has been, “if it’s close you give it to Shough” and I’ve never agreed w/ that sentiment, at least in this particular scenario. It's like saying if the race ends in a draw give it to the runner with longer legs because he’d win if the race was extended.
A more common practice in the NFL is the tie goes the veteran. However, let’s look at the totality of the data we’ve gathered over the last month.
-In practice Shough was up and down, while Rattler was consistent, even if unremarkable at times. Kellen Moore has expressed consistenty as a big portion of the grade. Winner (Rattler)
-Game 1 (Draw). Both QB’s had negative plays and positives. Shough had the post interception TD, Rattler lead the team in rushing. Both showed off their potential strengths and weaknesses.
-Game 2 (Rattler). Shough didn’t muster much w/ the 1's and ended up with 3 negative plays, one in particular was a bad intentional grounding that exposed some panic in his game. Rattler provided late game heroics with his only negative being an INT that both Coach and WR said was more on the WR and the play-call than the QB.
-Game 3 (Shough) by a slither, but perhaps because he saw 22 attempts to Rattlers 8 giving him potential for a bigger sample size. Ironically the box score shows Ratter with the higher QB rating (76.6) vs Shough’s (73.3), but I’m giving Shough the nod because he also lead the team in rushing and produced the only TD of the game on an 11 yard scamper that showed off his 4.6 speed.
If you average out their QB rating for pre-season....Tyler Shough (82.4), Spencer Rattler (82.5). There’s no better representation of one player not losing the job vs another player not winning it than that.
Kellen Moore’s described Shough as “high football IQ” on multiple occasions, the potential is there. However, a few of his sacks + the intentional grounding and the inconsistency in practice show a guy who’s still adjusting to the speed of the NFL, and still learning who he is. While there’s a legitimate argument for letting him learn on the fly, selling that to the locker room is a piece to the puzzle that a 1st year HC would probably tread lightly on, initially. I stress initially because I agree w/ Blunderhill, this battle is far from over, and should be revisited after the first quarter of the season.
Here's why.
There’s a realistic path to 2-2 in September, but it will take average to above average QB play for it to happen. History has a funny way of repeating itself and for Rattler, it’s a rehash of his Oklahoma tenure. There’s a bigger, faster, more “toolsy” QB waiting behind him and it’s only a matter of time before he’s overtaken.
The additional four games is a great opportunity for Rattler to either stave off the rookie or lose the job. Conveniently, there are no division games in September so the season, in theory, wouldn’t be derailed if the Saints were to go 0-4, presenting an easy path for Moore to pivot to Shough in October under the guise of “providing a spark” and conversely removing the need to sell the locker room.
The transition to Shough could happen organically vs it being forced because of the need to play your 2nd round rookie QB to justify the selection.
Random positive statistic: Saints held opposing rushing offenses to 3.9 ypc in 2025 pre-season. In 2024 it was 4.5 ypc.
Random Alarming statistic: Saints converted 30% on 3rd down in 3 pre-season games
Random Alarming statistic #2: Saints converted 33% of their Redzone trips. Vele should help in this area