- Ellias J Williams
- May 19
There's a ton of ambiguity with the Alvin Kamara situation as it continues to feel "weird" to anyone watching it.
Majority of the off-season has seen Kellen Moore tiptoe around the subject when asked about Kamara, especially after Travis Etienne was paid like a top 5 running back in the league.
On Monday there was a bit more clarity provided by Mickey Loomis but not much.
"We're just trying to see how he's going to fit on our roster," Loomis said. "Obviously there's a resource management element to it. We'll get to that over the next week or two."
So what gives?
It's a combination of money and a shrinking role in the offense. We'll discuss the money first.
The Saints already used the 50% rule restructure in March of 2026 that slashed Kamara's cap hit from 18 million down to 10.45 million and dropped his base salary down to a mere 1.345 million. Unlike other restructures this did not add any future guaranteed money to Kamara.
By executing that specific adjustment in March, the Saints successfully lowered the financial burden, while intentionally setting a trap door, one that only opens cleanly after June 1.
If the Saints had forced the issue in April by presenting a pay-cut offer and Kamara rejected it, they could not have cut him without suffering a pre- June 1 dead cap penalty of 24.40 million. If he's cut after June 1 they only take a minor 10 million cap hit and can spread that money smoothly into 2027.
If he's traded they actually SAVE money against the cap.
In other words, the Saints have slow played this situation so they have leverage and or a cheap exit strategy if Kamara isn't on the roster.
Still, the Saints are a better team with Kamara on it than off it but the biggest issue I see is where does he fit in ball distribution?
Moore's offense focuses heavily on the perimeter with the Wide Receivers getting roughly 60% of the target share in the passing games. Historically the running backs get about 18% of the targets and yet Alvin Kamara saw only 9% of the targets in the receiving game with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson taking on bigger roles.
Even more glaring than the lack of targets is the usage of Kamara. Historically 22% of Kamara's snaps have come either from slot or out wide, last year in Moore's system just 4%.
He was mostly kept in the backfield as standard runner and blocker (another weak part of Kamara's game) and neither roles accentuate his skillset.
There's no doubt Kamara would take a pay cut but taking one and not having the ability to regain your value due to reduced touches doesn't set up his future prospects very well if he truly intends to continue playing for another contract beyond 2026.
At this rate it's roughly a 60% chance that Saints fans should be prepared Kamara isn't on this team Week 1 and if he is, it'll be in an extremely reduced role.
